FELD 03/2017

Mückenmodell

Mückenmodell Mückenmodell UNTIL 2020 UNTIL 2080 for example, the model calculated that the Asian bush mosquito would settle in the vicinity of Jena in Thuringia in 2016: a forecast that was accurately confirmed. With each new mosquito finding, the computer model becomes more reliable and provides the mosquito atlas team with increasingly accurate information about potential distribution areas. "We send tens of thousands of virtual mosquitoes on their travels and track each and every path", Dr. Wieland explains. He and his team continue to work on refinements to the model. Climate change will be taken into account in the future, as will characteristic landscape features or human intervention. What obstacles do the mosquitoes have to overcome? Which routes encourage their distribution? For example, the mosquito atlas team discovered that the new habitats of the Asian tiger mosquito are almost always found along motorways – yet another variable to be added to the model. The results can ultimately be used to create distribution maps for the future. The model is already simulating the conditions under which the Asian bush mosquito could settle in Germany: "It will establish itself throughout West Germany, including Thuringia, parts of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Lower Saxony. In principle throughout the whole of Germany by 2060." Thus, the future path of the mosquitoes has already been virtually mapped out, thereby providing mosquito researchers with important clues and ideas for their search in the real world. Dr. Wieland is not only able to use his model for mosquitoes, it would work just as well for other animals. "We are in the middle of a great revolution in science", he stresses. Of course, individual researchers are not about to be replaced by machines. "But computers today allows us data-supported insights into interrelationship that were simply not possible just a few years ago due to the lack of computing power." Areas in which the Asian bush mosquito has at least a 50% chance of occuring. www.zalf.de/feld/en 32 33